As an indispensable basic material in the national economy, paper's price fluctuations not only affect the papermaking industry itself, but also transmit to multiple fields through the industrial chain, affecting enterprise production and residents' lives. To determine the upward trend of paper prices, it is necessary to comprehensively consider multiple factors such as supply and demand, raw material costs, policies and regulations, and macroeconomic factors. The impact of the rise also presents extensive and complex characteristics, involving the adjustment of interest patterns in various links of the industrial chain.
1、 The core influencing factors of rising paper prices
（1） Driven by the imbalance of supply and demand relationship
The market supply and demand relationship is the core factor determining paper prices, and the emergence of a supply-demand gap is often the direct trigger for price increases. From the demand side, the development dynamics of downstream industries directly dominate the changes in paper demand: in the printing industry, although digital media has had a certain impact on traditional paper printing, areas such as textbook printing, high-end packaging printing, and cultural and creative product printing still maintain stable demand, and some segmented markets such as customized printing and environmentally friendly printing even show growth trends; The packaging industry has benefited from the continuous expansion of the e-commerce industry, with increasing demand for express packaging, fresh cold chain packaging, food packaging, and more. Especially in recent years, the explosive growth of live streaming e-commerce has further amplified the rigid demand for packaging paper such as corrugated paper and box board paper. In addition, the cyclical recovery of office supplies consumption and the publishing industry will also temporarily increase the demand for paper.
From the supply side, the capacity release, inventory level, and production stability of the paper industry directly affect the market supply capacity. At present, the domestic paper industry presents a pattern of "head concentration and small and medium-sized dispersion", with top enterprises occupying the main production capacity. However, the overall expansion pace of the industry's production capacity is relatively cautious, and the introduction of new production capacity often requires a construction period of 2-3 years, making it difficult to quickly respond to short-term demand surges. At the same time, the inventory management strategy of paper companies can also affect market supply: if the company anticipates an increase in raw material prices or demand, it may actively stockpile goods, leading to a decrease in market circulation; When the industry enters the traditional peak season (such as the peak demand for pre holiday packaging and the peak demand for printing during the school year), inventory consumption accelerates. If replenishment is not timely, it will lead to supply shortages. In addition, unexpected factors such as equipment maintenance and natural disasters (such as floods and typhoons affecting production bases) may also cause temporary interruptions in some production capacity, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance.
（2） Rigid support for raw material costs
In the cost structure of the paper industry, raw materials account for as much as 60% -70%. The fluctuation of core raw material prices such as wood pulp and waste paper directly determines the high or low production cost of paper, which is then transmitted to the terminal selling price.
As the main raw material for high-end paper and specialty paper, wood pulp's price is influenced by multiple factors such as international market supply and demand, trade patterns, and exchange rate fluctuations. Global wood pulp supply is highly concentrated. Brazil, Canada, Finland and other countries are major exporters. Their wood cutting policies, forest disasters (such as forest fires in Canada, rainstorm in Brazil), logistics costs (fluctuations in shipping freight), etc. will affect wood pulp production and exports. For example, in 2023, the global price of coniferous pulp increased by 15% year-on-year, mainly due to the forest fires in western Canada leading to a reduction in wood supply, coupled with the lowering water level of the Panama Canal affecting shipping efficiency and driving up international wood pulp trade costs. The self-sufficiency rate of domestic wood pulp is insufficient, with about 60% relying on imports. Fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate will also directly affect the procurement cost of imported wood pulp. When the exchange rate depreciates, the raw material expenses of paper companies will significantly increase.
As the core raw material of recycled paper, the price of waste paper is affected by factors such as the domestic recycling system, environmental policies, and import restrictions. In recent years, China has strengthened the supervision of imported waste paper and banned the import of "foreign garbage", resulting in a significant decrease in the amount of imported waste paper and forcing the improvement of the domestic waste paper recycling system. However, there are still problems of insufficient recycling efficiency and uneven quality in the short term, which has pushed up the domestic waste paper procurement prices. In addition, the price of waste paper recycling is also affected by the overall trend of the commodity market and changes in downstream demand for recycled paper, showing seasonal fluctuations.
When raw material prices continue to rise, paper companies often pass on costs by raising prices in order to maintain a reasonable profit margin. Normally, a 10% increase in raw material prices will result in a corresponding 5% -8% increase in paper prices, depending on the industry's competitive landscape and the bargaining power of the enterprise.
（3） The guiding role of policies and regulations
Policies and regulations indirectly drive up paper prices by affecting the production capacity, standards, and raw material supply of the paper industry. Among them, the impact of environmental policies is the most profound. In recent years, China has vigorously promoted the "dual carbon" goal. As a high energy consuming and high polluting industry, the papermaking industry is facing strict environmental control requirements. On the one hand, the environmental protection department has formulated stricter standards for wastewater discharge, exhaust gas treatment, solid waste utilization, etc. of papermaking enterprises, requiring them to invest funds to upgrade environmental protection equipment and improve production processes, which directly increases the operating costs of enterprises; On the other hand, small paper mills that do not meet environmental protection standards and have not been rectified properly have taken measures such as closure and shutdown for rectification, resulting in a contraction of the total market production capacity. For example, during the 14th Five Year Plan period, China has closed more than 300 small paper enterprises and eliminated about 12 million tons of outdated production capacity. The market supply pattern has further shifted towards compliant production capacity, and the supply-demand balance has been disrupted, driving up prices.
The adjustment of trade policies will also affect the market supply of paper and raw materials. In addition to restrictions on the import of waste paper, some countries' adjustments to export tariffs and trade barriers for products such as wood and pulp can also affect the stability of domestic raw material supply. For example, if a certain wood exporting country raises export tariffs, it will directly increase the cost of domestic wood pulp procurement; The logistics obstruction and tariff increase caused by international trade frictions will further push up the production and circulation costs of paper.
In addition, industrial policies also have a guiding role in the structural adjustment of the paper industry. The state encourages paper-making enterprises to transform towards green, large-scale, and high-end products, and supports the development of recycled paper, specialty paper, and other products. While promoting high-quality development of the industry, this has also led some enterprises to reduce their production capacity for ordinary paper and shift towards high value-added products, indirectly affecting the market supply of ordinary paper.
（4） The indirect impact of macroeconomic and unexpected events
The changes in the economic environment will indirectly affect paper prices by influencing demand and costs. In the stage of economic recovery, with active industrial production and prosperous consumer markets, the demand for downstream industries such as printing and packaging increases, driving up the demand for paper; Under the background of inflation, various production costs such as labor, energy, and logistics have generally increased, further raising the comprehensive cost of paper and forming a price increase trend driven by both cost and demand.
Exchange rate fluctuations have a significant impact on the paper industry, which is highly dependent on imports. When the RMB depreciates, the procurement cost of imported raw materials such as wood pulp and waste paper increases. In order to cover the cost pressure, paper companies often increase the selling price of paper; On the contrary, the appreciation of the RMB may alleviate some cost pressures.
In addition, unexpected events can also cause short-term fluctuations in paper prices. For example, during the pandemic, global supply chain disruptions hindered the import of raw materials, while remote work and online learning drove up demand for printing paper, packaging paper, and other materials. The combined effect of supply and demand led to a periodic increase in paper prices; Natural disasters such as flooding paper mills and typhoons affecting port transportation, as well as geopolitical conflicts, may also cause short-term shortages in paper supply and push up prices by affecting production capacity or logistics.
2、 The chain reaction of rising paper prices
（1） Cost pressure and coping strategies in downstream industries
The rise in paper prices has directly increased the production costs of downstream industries such as printing, packaging, and publishing. Especially for small and medium-sized enterprises with a high proportion of paper and weak bargaining power, the operating pressure is more prominent.
In the printing industry, the paper cost of traditional commercial printing and book printing enterprises can reach 40% -50%, and the rise in paper prices directly compresses the profit margin of enterprises. Due to fierce market competition, small and medium-sized printing enterprises find it difficult to transfer all the pressure of rising costs to downstream customers. Some enterprises can only maintain operations through low profits and high sales, and even face the risk of losses; Large printing enterprises, with their scale advantage and strong bargaining power, can sign long-term supply agreements with paper companies, lock in prices, or alleviate pressure by increasing product quotations and optimizing customer structure (focusing on high value-added printing business).
In terms of packaging industry, the rising prices of corrugated paper, box board paper and other packaging paper have a significant impact on industries that rely on packaging such as e-commerce, food, and fresh produce. For example, the cold chain packaging of fresh food e-commerce not only has special requirements for the waterproof and pressure resistance of paper, but also has a large demand and fast turnover. The rise in paper prices directly leads to an increase in packaging costs; Express delivery companies are facing the dilemma of "rising packaging costs+difficulty in raising express delivery fees". Some companies can only reduce costs by optimizing packaging design (such as using lightweight paper, reducing excessive packaging), and improving packaging recycling efficiency. In addition, some packaging companies have begun to try using alternative materials such as biodegradable plastics and recycled pulp products, but the technological maturity and cost stability of alternative materials still need to be improved.
In the publishing industry, paper accounts for about 30% -40% of the printing cost of textbooks, teaching aids, and popular books. The continuous rise in paper prices has led to an increase in book publishing costs, and some publishers may control costs by raising book prices, reducing print runs, and using lightweight paper. However, book pricing is limited by factors such as market acceptance and policy regulation (such as textbook price control), which limits the room for price increases. This also puts greater operational pressure on some small and medium-sized publishing houses.
（2） The direct impact on consumers' lives
The rise in paper prices will ultimately be transmitted through the industrial chain to the consumer end, increasing the cost of living for residents. On the one hand, the prices of paper publications such as books, magazines, and newspapers may rise, affecting consumers' reading expenses; On the other hand, the rising costs of express packaging, food packaging, and other related products may lead to price increases or higher express delivery fees - for example, some e-commerce merchants may include packaging costs in the selling price of goods, and express delivery companies may appropriately increase the price of express delivery services under cost pressure, indirectly increasing consumers' living expenses.
In addition, office supplies consumption will also be affected. The prices of office supplies such as printing paper, laptops, folders, etc. may increase with the rise in paper prices, which not only increases the office costs of enterprises, but also brings expenditure pressure to ordinary consumers. However, with the advancement of digital office and paperless learning, some consumer demand may shift to online channels, which to some extent offsets the impact of rising paper prices.
3、 Summary and Prospect
The rise in paper prices is not the result of a single factor, but the product of multiple factors such as supply and demand, raw material costs, policies and regulations, and macroeconomic factors working together. Its upward trend will not only change the competitive landscape of the paper industry, promote the industry's transformation towards scale and green, but also have a profound impact on the production and operation of downstream enterprises and the daily lives of consumers through the transmission of the industrial chain.
For paper companies, it is necessary to strengthen raw material procurement management, optimize supply chain layout, and hedge the risk of raw material price fluctuations through long-term agreements, futures hedging, and other means; At the same time, increase investment in technology research and development, develop high value-added products, and enhance profitability and risk resistance. For downstream enterprises, it is necessary to reduce costs by optimizing production processes, improving paper utilization, exploring alternative materials, and strengthening collaboration with upstream enterprises to build a stable supply chain system. For consumers, the popularization of paperless living and green consumption concepts can not only reduce their dependence on paper, but also alleviate the pressure brought by price increases to a certain extent.
In the long run, with the continuous tightening of environmental policies, adjustment of raw material supply patterns, and structural changes in downstream demand, paper prices may remain relatively high. But with the advancement of industry technology, the improvement of the recycling system for renewable resources, and the development of alternative materials, the cost pressure of the paper industry will gradually be alleviated, and price fluctuations will also tend to stabilize. In the future, the development of the paper industry will pay more attention to green, low-carbon, and high-quality development, which will also bring new development opportunities and challenges to all links of the industry chain.